Oil Pollution in the Persian Gulf: The Hidden Cost of Conflict

The Persian Gulf, home to over 30% of the world’s proven oil reserves and some of its busiest maritime corridors, is once again at risk from the fallout of geopolitical conflict[1]. Escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran have raised alarms not only over regional security but also over the environmental stability of this ecologically sensitive and economically vital body of water.

Why This Matters Now

The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, roughly 20 million barrels per day[2]. A single modern oil tanker can carry up to 2 million barrels, meaning that any attack or accident could result in a spill of a massive scale.

The economic cost of an oil spill depends on size, location, and response time; but even a moderate spill (100,000 barrels) in the Gulf could cost over $1 billion when factoring in environmental damage, cleanup, fisheries losses, and tourism impacts[3].

If just 5% of the daily oil volume (1 million barrels) transiting the Strait were spilled due to sabotage or miscalculation, cleanup and economic damages could reach $5–10 billion, with long-term impacts driving the total even higher.

Lessons from the Past

This isn’t the first time that war has harmed the Gulf’s environment:

• Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988): Oil tankers and platforms were frequent targets. A major spill in 1983 released over 1.7 million barrels. Adjusted for today’s costs, that spill alone likely caused $2–3 billion in environmental and economic damage, though most went unaccounted due to the war.
• Gulf War (1991): Iraqi forces dumped nearly 4–6 million barrels of oil into the Gulf, creating the largest oil spill in history.
  • The cleanup cost was over $540 million at the time, more than $1.2 billion today, excluding long-term ecological and health costs[4].
  • Damage to the marine environment, fisheries, desalination plants, and tourism infrastructure has been estimated at $10–15 billion, according to regional environmental agencies and post-war assessments.
  • Fires set to more than 700 oil wells added $1.5 billion in firefighting costs and likely tens of billions in lost oil revenues and health consequences from toxic air and soil.

What’s at Risk Today

Modern oil infrastructure is more advanced but not immune to missile attacks, cyber sabotage, or drone strikes. An attack on a major facility like Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq plant (hit in 2019) temporarily disrupted 5.7 million barrels per day of production, about 6% of global supply, and caused over $2 billion in immediate damage with oil prices spiking 15% in one day[5].

Even a smaller-scale spill or facility shutdown in the Gulf could:

• Trigger insurance claims in the hundreds of millions of dollars
• Disrupt global oil prices and cost the global economy billions per week
• Cost $500 million to $1 billion in emergency environmental response

People Will Be Affected Too

Beyond the ecological toll, the economic fallout for coastal communities could be devastating:

• Desalination plants: Shutting down even a few major plants due to oil contamination could cost $10–50 million per day in lost water production and emergency imports[6]. In 1991, Kuwait faced water shortages and trucked in potable water at high cost for months.
• Fishing industry: The Gulf’s commercial fishing sector, worth an estimated $1.5–2 billion per year, could collapse for years if stocks are contaminated[7]. After the Gulf War spill, some areas took more than a decade to fully recover.
• Tourism: The regional coastal tourism economy, valued at $20 billion across the Gulf, could lose hundreds of millions from even a moderate spill that forces beach closures and devastates coral reefs[8].

What Can Be Done

To reduce the risk of future economic and environmental disasters in the region, several urgent measures should be implemented. Some of them would include:

• Protect oil facilities and sea lanes: Declare energy infrastructure as protected under international law. Attacks on oil facilities could trigger not only an ecological disaster but also global economic losses in the tens of billions.
• Coordinate emergency response: Gulf nations should jointly invest in rapid response systems, estimated to cost $250–500 million to deploy region-wide, but potentially saving billions in spill-related losses[9].
• Invest in ecosystem restoration: Rehabilitating coral reefs, mangroves, and other natural buffers would require $1–2 billion over the next decade but could help prevent costlier damage from future spills and climate events[10].

The Persian Gulf is already one of the most polluted and ecologically stressed marine environments in the world. A conflict-triggered oil spill could cause tens of billions of dollars in damage, displace communities, poison ecosystems, and cripple national economies.

As tensions rise, we must remember: the cost of war extends far beyond the battlefield. Without urgent action, the Gulf could face an environmental and economic disaster that takes a generation and trillions of dollars to fully repair.

[1] Oil – Statistical Review of World Energy 2021

[2] Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2025

[3] WEO

[4] Arabian Gulf Spills; Persian Gulf, Kuwait | IncidentNews | NOAA, 1991

[5] How drone combat in Ukraine is changing warfare, 2024

[6] Renewable energy desalination : an emerging solution to close the water gap in the Middle East and North Africa

[7] Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa

[8] Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa

[9] Thirteen Years After Deepwater Horizon, Restoration Makes Progress | Gulf Spill Restoration

[10] Thirteen Years After Deepwater Horizon, Restoration Makes Progress | Gulf Spill Restoration